Syria Today | Marching to a Foreign Beat

Marching to a Foreign Beat

By Marwan Kabalan
Photo Adel Samara

As Arab leaders prepare to meet in Libya at the end of this month, the general Arab public remains overwhelmingly uninterested. Unlike previous gatherings, where people were made to believe that the upcoming summit would resolve most, if not all, of the region’s endemic problems, this particular one has so far received little media attention. Few, in fact, expect the Tripoli summit to overcome the differences between Arab leaders on key issues such as the Arab Peace Initiative, Yemen, Iraq, Iran’s nuclear programme and Sudan.

The Arab world might seem less divided than it was a year ago, especially after the Syrian-Saudi and Syrian-Lebanese rapprochements, yet from a structural point of view Arab governments still lack the will, the intention and, above all else, the resources to deal with complicated issues such as those mentioned above. It is obvious that Arab leaders are being asked to deal with problems that far exceed their capabilities. For years now, at least since 9/11 and more specifically since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Arab leaders have struggled to cope in an environment where they have little control and few options.

For those not influenced by media frenzy and poor analysis, it is becoming increasingly clear that the very structure of the Arab state, its form of political authority and the quality of its leadership will severely limit any form of independent Arab initiative. In the Arab world – which contains up to 70 percent of the globe’s crude oil – it is very difficult to act independently from the will of great powers and their vital interests.

In this context, most of the problems plaguing the Arab world are rooted in its dependency on external powers. Some Arab countries, such as the Gulf states, depend on the West, particularly the US, for survival and protection. Others, such as Egypt and Jordan, are totally dependent on Western handouts for survival, not only as regimes but also as states and societies. Given the situation, how can we then expect Arab leaders to agree on a common position when the vital interests of their allies, friends and foes will certainly be affected?

Of equal importance, the Arab states, whether we admit it or not, have failed to take matters into their own hands. This is not only due to their dependence on foreign powers, but also because they have failed to act as rational players in the international system – states that seeks to maximise their power. The Arab world has, in fact, acted pathetically in response to the challenges that it faces today. Unlike Iran and Turkey which have worked to maximise their gains throughout the region, the Arab world has stood idly by and watched as its influence and prestige have diminished.

Furthermore, even when Arab leaders manage to agree – however roughly – on a common position regarding regional events such as Iraq or the quasi-civil war in Yemen, their stance, by and large, remains irrelevant without the cooperation of the region’s key external powers such as the US, Iran and Turkey. These three parties hold more sway, each in its own area of influence, than the whole Arab world put together, a situation which will remain even if Arab leaders succeed in overcoming their differences and begin acting in a more responsible manner towards their citizens and national interests.

No frank or open analysis could possibly conclude that the Arab public can expect breakthroughs during the Arab summit in Tripoli. Arguing otherwise is a deliberate attempt to mislead Arab public opinion and will only create more disappointment and bitterness.

Marwan Kabalan is a professor at the faculty of political science at the University of Damascus.