Syria Today | Breaking the Stalemate

Breaking the Stalemate

By Julien Barnes Dacey
Photo Carole al-Farah

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia visited Syria for the first time as head of state in mid-October to meet with President Bashar al-Assad. The visit, the first by a Saudi monarch since the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, is being hailed by analysts as a clear sign of an improvement in relations between the two long-bickering powers.

Following talks, the two leaders agreed to “remove the obstacles” to closer ties” and underlined their “commitment to pursue coordination and consultations at all levels on matters that interest both peoples”.

Most significantly for the region, however, local analysts claim the visit was a transformative step towards ending the so-called Cold War that has divided the Middle East in recent years, pitting a self-proclaimed ‘axis of resistance’ comprising Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas against the US-labelled ‘moderate’ camp of Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

“This is important,” Thabet Salem, a Syrian political analyst, said. “There is a new mood in the region. This is a radical change in the attitude of the Saudis towards Syria.”

Laying old tensions to rest

In this regional context, the visit could pave the way for greater harmony on a number of divisive issues. In Lebanon, the two powers have been supporting opposing political sides in the struggle to form a new government on the back of June’s parliamentary elections which has left the country’s political system at a deadlock.

In the Occupied Palestinian Territories, meanwhile, Syrian support for Khaled Meshaal’s Hamas movement and Saudi support for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s rivalling Fatah faction has complicated Egyptian-mediated reconciliation efforts between the two sides. During the talks, the two leaders agreed to work towards the establishment of unity governments in both conflicts.

“We’ve overcome the period of tension and this visit will be significant in helping achieve calm and stability in the region,” Suleiman Haddad, chairman of the Syrian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, told Syria Today.

Underlying tensions between Syria and Saudi Arabia were dramatically exposed in the aftermath of the 2005 assassination of Hariri who had close ties with the Saudi monarchy. Damascus was widely blamed for the murder – an accusation it has always denied – and was subsequently forced to withdraw its troops from Lebanon under international pressure, ending a 29-year military presence.

Following the assassination, Saudi Arabia threw its weight behind Saad Hariri, son of the slain prime minister and leader of the March 14 movement, while Syria continued to champion the cause of his rival, the militant Shi’ite faction Hezbollah. When the Lebanese parties came to the brink of civil war over the appointment of the country’s new president in 2008, Riyadh once again pointed the finger at Syria for “interfering in Lebanese affairs”. It consequently boycotted an Arab League summit in Damascus that February and recalled its ambassador to the country.

Carrots for sticks

Looming in the background to all of this is Syria’s strong alliance with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s ideological foe. Local observers such as Mazen Bilal note that after years of pursuing a failed policy of isolation in a bid to force Damascus out of the Persian camp, the US and Saudi Arabia have finally swapped their sticks for carrots in favour of dialogue.

“Iran is the beginning of all the issues,” Bilal said. “The Saudis know they cannot cut Syrian-Iranian ties, but they are trying to marginalise the Iranian role.”

All of which has seen a flurry of regional activity in recent months. In March, Assad visited King Abdullah in Riyadh and by August the Saudis had sent a new ambassador to Syria. In September, Assad was also a guest of honour at the opening of the new King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Jeddah. Shortly after King Abdullah’s visit to Damascus last month, Syria named Mahdi Dakhlallah as its new ambassador to Riyadh.

“Syrian-Saudi ties are seeing excellent progress,” Bouthaina Shaaban, political and media adviser to Assad, said following the king’s visit.

A fresh Saudi boost

For some observers, the most important ramification of King Abdullah’s visit could well be economic. The Saudi delegation, which included the head of Saudi intelligence as well as the ministers of foreign affairs and finance, commandeered entire floors at two of Damascus’ largest hotels and held extensive talks with Syrian officials. Following a meeting with his Saudi counterpart Ibrahim Assaf, Syria’s Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Hussein declared that bilateral economic ties will “begin growing in the coming days”.

Rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, the region’s prime economic power, is a highly lucrative affair. And while loathe to admit it, Syria’s fallout with Saudi has hit its hip pocket. According to EU figures, Saudi investment fell from SYP 44.5bn (EUR 645m) in 2006 to just SYP 690m (EUR 10m) in 2007, a decrease the EU explains as “politically motivated”.

“Saudi investment is by far the main source of FDI [Foreign Direct Investment] in the region, but Saudi investment in Syria has been limited in recent years,” Jihad Yazigi, editor-in-chief of the online business newsletter The Syria Report said. “It is not as big as it should be.”

Movement in this area has seemingly already begun. In July, a Saudi construction firm launched a SYP 5bn (USD 110m) industrial park in Adra, a project with a potential value of as much as SYP 9.2bn (USD 200m). The plant’s inauguration ceremony was attended by Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Naji Otri, as well as the ministers of economy and industry.

The two countries also recently announced that a Saudi-Syrian businessmen’s forum charged with boosting joint ventures will be held early next year and the Saudi-Syrian Company for Industrial and Agricultural Investment will have its capital increased.

Don’t count your chickens

Local analysts agree the king’s trip to Damascus marks a major break in the often acrimonious relationship of recent years. They caution, however, it is still too early to be talking about a full restoration of ties and a new regional partnership.

“No doubt the trip solved some issues, but Syrian-Saudi relations have been tense for a very long time,” Bilal said. “Damascus’s steadfast refusal to fully cut ties with Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia’s continuing unwillingness to recognise Syria’s regional clout, is likely therefore to impede a full rapprochement.”