| October 2008 - Politics |
| October 2008 |
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The Long Road Back Words Andrew Tabler
The foreign policy section of Barack Obama’s official website is likely to make any Syrian official happy. The electronic position paper says America’s biggest problem is that “the United States is trapped by the Bush-Cheney approach to diplomacy that refuses to talk to leaders we don’t like”. This list has included President Assad since February 15, 2005, when Washington withdrew its ambassador to Damascus one day after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. In Obama’s view, not talking makes the US look “arrogant”, denies the country “opportunities to make progress” and makes it difficult for Washington to “rally international support”. To solve this problem, Obama says he will meet “the leaders of all nations, friend and foe” to deal with challenges facing the United States. Syria is not directly listed among these top challenges, which include “terrorism, and Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programs”. Obama says he will make achieving a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “a key diplomatic priority”. Last but not least, Obama pledges to “stop shuttering consulates”. Could the cloistered US embassy in Damascus get an overhaul under an Obama presidency? Or perhaps Obama would reopen the US consulate in Aleppo, which was closed after it was stormed by Syrian protestors following the June 1967 war. In contrast, John McCain’s campaign website briefly criticises what he calls Obama’s call for “unconditional dialogue from a position of weakness”. McCain calls upon the international community to “apply real pressure to Syria and Iran to change their behavior” – a position nearly identical to that of the outgoing Bush Administration. Iraq Differences in each candidate’s style in how to approach America’s problems in the Middle East are most clearly reflected in their positions on Iraq. Obama’s website advocates launching an “aggressive diplomatic effort to reach a comprehensive compact on the stability of Iraq and the region”. To achieve this goal, Obama follows the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group Report (aka the Baker- Hamilton Commission) to include Iran and Syria in discussions to achieve common goals. These include efforts to secure Iraq’s borders, to “keep neighboring countries from meddling inside Iraq; to isolate Al-Qaeda, and to support reconciliation among Iraq’s sectarian groups”. McCain, in contrast, would forego negotiations with Syria and Iran. Under the section “Victory in Iraq”, which serves as the main page of McCain’s foreign policy section, he accuses Syria of supporting violence in Iraq and refusing to “crack down on Iraqi insurgents and foreign terrorists operating within its territory”. Instead of negotiations, McCain would rely on a strong “regional military posture to make clear to Iran our determination to protect our forces and deter Iranian intervention” in Iraq. Hezbollah Obama’s website hits the issue of Syria’s support for Hezbollah harder than McCain. Under the section “Israel”, Obama says he is concerned about the “rapid re-arming” of Hezbollah and accuses Syria and Iran of “support of Hezbollah via arms shipments and funding”. No details are given as to how he would raise this issue with Damascus, however. The website says this stance is an extension of Obama’s support for Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for stopping all arms shipments to Hezbollah. He also calls on the EU to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation. McCain takes a hardline approach to Hezbollah as well, but mostly in the context of Iran’s support for the organisation. At the time of publication, the McCain website still says he will push for the release of two Israelis captured by Hezbollah in July 2006, despite the return of their remains last July. Nowhere does the campaign website directly list Syria’s support for Hezbollah as a major issue. This could be a result of competing influences between McCain’s foreign policy advisors on how to deal with the Party of God. Henry Kissinger and Richard Armitage are firmly in the ‘realist’ camp and support negotiated settlement of issues, but only with state actors. Others, including William Kristol, Robert Kagan and John Lehman, are known for taking a much harder line. Peace process and the ‘wedge’ theory How to cut off Syrian support for Hezbollah and Iran, and its relationship to a peace treaty with Israel, is the one wild card issue on Syria in American policy circles. Obama has said publicly he supports Syria’s current indirect negotiations with Israel. Many, if not most, of Obama’s advisors are advocates of negotiations that would see the Golan returned to Syria in exchange for Damascus cutting off or reducing its relationship with Iran and halting its support for Hezbollah. The plan, formulated in response to the 2006 Lebanon War and known in policy circles as the ‘wedge’ theory, is predicated on the idea that the United States recognise Syria has legitimate interests in Lebanon. In return for concessions in other areas, Syria could use its influence in Lebanon at some unspecified time to isolate the Iranian-backed Hezbollah politically or militarily. The McCain campaign has been largely silent on the prospect of Syrian-Israeli negotiations. This could be due to most of his advisors’ aversion to recognising Syrian interests in Lebanon. Instead, McCain’s website advocates increasing military and economic aid to the Lebanese government in order to oppose Hezbollah and its Iranian allies. How this would work given that the Hezbollah-led bloc has a full third of the cabinet seats and can veto any decision is anyone’s guess. The engagement red line
The attacks mirrored earlier and arguably more successful attacks on Robert Malley, director of the International Crisis Group’s Middle East programme. Obama severed his ties with Malley on May 20 after The Times of London revealed his direct contact with the leadership of Hamas, which the United States considers a terrorist organisation. The Obama campaign claimed Malley had only advised the campaign informally and “has no formal role in the campaign and will not play one in the future”. Malley had also come under fire earlier in the year for his contacts with the Syrian leadership, as well as his father’s Syrian origins. Ironically, some analysts say that McCain might be better able to engage with Syria in a first term as president. Because of McCain’s support for the surge in Iraq, his experience as a POW in Vietnam and his strong relations with Israel, approaching Syria could be less costly politically. Diplomatic breakthroughs in the past have often come from Republicans tough on National Security, most notably Richard Nixon’s opening to China in 1972 to take advantage of the Sino-Soviet split. While McCain is known as a maverick in his own party, it remains to be seen how far this would extend concerning Republican policy on isolating Damascus. |
From President Bashar al-Assad to the man on the street, Syrians are keenly awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election on November 4. Most predict that a victory by Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama could lead to a new, more cooperative era in relations between Damascus and Washington. A quick look at each candidate’s positions on Syria-related issues, however, indicates that no matter who moves into the White House, the road to reconciliation could be a long one.
Syria might not be a central issue in the US presidential election, but this doesn’t mean efforts by Obama’s advisors to engage Damascus haven’t created controversy. A number of Americans who advise the Obama campaign on Syria refused to comment on this article due to the sensitivity of the matter. On August 20, the New York Sun reported that Daniel Kurtzer, a former US ambassador to Israel and Egypt, had attended the First International Lawyers’ Conference held in Damascus from July 6 to 8 and sponsored by the British-Syrian Society (BSS). The following day, former Republican presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani and McCain foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann attacked Kurtzer for attending the lawyers’ conference because the BSS is co-chaired by Fawas al-Akhras, the father of Syrian First Lady Asma al-Assad. Giuliani alleged Kurtzer had met with President Assad and even claimed in an online radio briefing that the trip was underwritten by Petro-Canada, one of the conference’s sponsors.