| July 2008 - Politics |
| July 2008 |
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Giving Peace a Chance… Again Words John Dagge
Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights entered its 41st year last month. Captured from Syria in 1967, Israel’s refusal to return the rocky and generally frozen plateau has long poisoned relations between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Syrian claims, however, that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is willing to return the Golan Heights in full – a step which has previously scuttled any attempt at a peace deal – has seemingly set the stage for a resolution to one of the region’s oldest and most bitter conflicts. News of indirect talks between Syrian and Israel, brokered by Turkey, has seen usually gloomy analysts from both sides of the Golan confidently forecasting an end to the Syrian-Israeli conflict. The chance to breakfast in Damascus before taking a late lunch overlooking the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem is suddenly a tantalising reality. “It’s possible you will see direct negotiations before the end of the year,” Thabet Salem, bureau chief of NBC Syria, said. “This latest effort is a very serious push. We have entered the 21st century and there is a need for peace.” Striking a similarly positive chord, Imad Fauzi al-Shueibi, head of the Damascus-based Data & Strategic Studies Centre, said he was “quite optimistic” about the prospect of a deal because “Israel has realised that it cannot achieve peace without returning all the land it occupied from Syria in the 1967 war.” Optimism Confirmation of a new peace effort was made public on May 21 in a highly coordinated press exercise which saw all three governments issue identical statements only minutes apart. The negotiations involve representatives from Turkey’s prime minister’s office shuffling between hotel rooms in Istanbul housing a Syrian delegation headed by Riad Daoudi, a legal advisor to the Foreign Ministry and president of the Syrian Virtual University headquartered in Damascus, and an Israeli delegation represented by two of Olmert’s top aides, Yoram Turbowitz, his chief of staff, and Shalom Turgeman, his foreign policy adviser. A second round of talks came to an end in the middle of last month and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Olmert are now expected to attend the Mediterranean Union Summit slated for July 13 to launch a French-proposed economic alliance between Europe and countries on the southern coast of the Mediterranean. Syrian and Israeli delegations are also scheduled to return to Istanbul this month for another two rounds of talks. While the latest peace initiative has generated much hopeful chatter among analysts, the leaders of both countries have been more cautious in their public assessment of the process. President Assad told reporters there was now “some glimmer of hope” for a breakthrough following the conclusion of the second round of indirect talks, while Olmert described the atmosphere at the talks as “positive”. Both have ruled out meeting in person at the Mediterranean summit. While generally hailed in the international media as a surprise development, the latest talks are the fruits of a series of unofficial efforts over the past four-and-a-half years to end the conflict. During this time Turkey, a country with positive relations with both Israel and Syria, has played a growing role as regional mediator. Syria has always held it is ready for a just, fair and comprehensive peace settlement. In the wake of the 2006 war in Lebanon, Assad told the German news magazine Der Spiegel his country wanted peace with Israel. Olmert responded by saying the Golan “will remain in Israeli hands forever”. He followed this up by threatening to sack anyone in his cabinet who suggested Israel investigate Assad’s offer. The last official attempt at peace broke down when then-serving Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak backed away from a full withdrawal from the Golan – a clear deal breaker for Syria – during US-brokered peace talks in 1999 and 2000. Policy shift Just what has brought Israel to the peace table in recent months – the need to combat the growing power of Hezbollah in Lebanese politics, the need to combat the growing power of Iran in Syrian politics, or simply the need to combat a growing corruption scandal in domestic Israeli politics – is open to debate.
Salem, however, rejects the notion Olmert is using the talks as a cover for his domestic troubles. “Israel would not have progressed this far if that was the real reason,” he said. Rather, Salem says a fundamental shift in the regional balance has taken place since the 2006 conflict in Lebanon. “Israel was hurt in that war; a bunch of fighters made it open its eyes,” he said. “Regardless of whether Syria is a nuclear power or not, this war showed Israel that conflict with Syria would not be a joke. It would be a painful experience. Following this, the whole doctrine of expanding boundaries has changed. It’s gone for good.” Even if Israel is willing to return the Golan in full, other challenges lie in the way of a settlement. The issue of water, mutual zones of disengagement, early warning attack systems and the pace and scope of normalising relations between the two countries all loom as potential – albeit far less tall – hurdles. Then, of course, there is the question of Syria’s relationship with Iran and military groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine which have offices in Damascus. All of which, say seasoned observers, are obstacles which can be surmounted. Given, however, an overwhelming majority of Israelis say they do not want to return the Golan Heights – several Israeli Knesset members have even suggested anyone contemplating giving back the area should be executed – selling a deal in Israel looms as potentially a greater challenge for Olmert than securing one with Syria. |
The timing of Olmert’s willingness to engage in peace talks, coming on the back of an ever-deepening corruption scandal which many are predicting will see him forced from office, has raised eyebrows among a sceptical Syrian public about his true intentions for entering talks.